China: 2023 May Be Even Tougher than 2022

28 October 2022 At China's recently concluded 20th Communist Party Congress, Xi Jinping was re-elected to an unprecedented third term as Party leader. Xi now appears set to lead both the Party and government for the next five years, and likely even longer. With political power now secured, can the same be said about the [...]

China: Tiger Needs a Red Packet

6 February 2022 During the past two Covid-strickened years, China's economic growth has outperformed global activity. Indeed, while output in developed nations contracted nearly 5% in 2020, the Chinese economy actually gained 2%. Likewise, China's 8% recovery in 2021 outpaced the 5% rebound in the world's richer countries. Behind the headlines, however, the news has [...]

Sino-US Trade: First Step on a Long Journey

20 January 2020 A comprehensive trade agreement between the United States and China was never a realistic possibility: these take years of skillful negotiations to conclude. To be sure, the recently-signed plan has many shortcomings. Predictably, the deal fails to address many of the most contentious issues, e.g. state subsidies and cyber-security. Likewise, the dispute [...]

Asia: Bending, But Not Breaking

22 October 2019 The global economy is slowing. During previous bouts of world-wide economic weakness, Asia has been relied upon as an engine of growth. This time, however, Asian economic activity is also cooling, as the region (and individual countries within the area) confronts both external and domestic challenges. The deepening trade war, of course, [...]