How the Sino-American geopolitical relationship evolves during the second Trump presidency may prove to be the key economic and financial market issue in 2025 and beyond. To be sure, the incoming Administration's strategy is still evolving. Pundits consider which of the so-called "C" policy options Mr. Trump will implement, and what the ultimate strategic objectives [...]
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China: 2023 May Be Even Tougher than 2022
28 October 2022 At China's recently concluded 20th Communist Party Congress, Xi Jinping was re-elected to an unprecedented third term as Party leader. Xi now appears set to lead both the Party and government for the next five years, and likely even longer. With political power now secured, can the same be said about the [...]
China: Tiger Needs a Red Packet
6 February 2022 During the past two Covid-strickened years, China's economic growth has outperformed global activity. Indeed, while output in developed nations contracted nearly 5% in 2020, the Chinese economy actually gained 2%. Likewise, China's 8% recovery in 2021 outpaced the 5% rebound in the world's richer countries. Behind the headlines, however, the news has [...]
Sino-US Trade: First Step on a Long Journey
20 January 2020 A comprehensive trade agreement between the United States and China was never a realistic possibility: these take years of skillful negotiations to conclude. To be sure, the recently-signed plan has many shortcomings. Predictably, the deal fails to address many of the most contentious issues, e.g. state subsidies and cyber-security. Likewise, the dispute [...]