20 March 2020 Initial data from China indicate the economic impact of the Coronavirus and efforts to prevent its spread will be significant. I will make some preliminary global economic projections, although they come with a greater degree of uncertainty than normal. Perhaps more importantly, I will set out some guideposts about how to assess [...]
16 March 2020 Global central banks have announced additional emergency stimulus measures. In particular, the US Federal Reserve reduced its policy rate by 100 basis point, which now stands near zero. In addition, the Fed will resume aggressively its quantitative easing program. During the Global Financial Crisis global markets were reassured by such assertive policy [...]
12 March 2020 The US imposed a travel ban with Europe. The UK is transitioning from the from the containment to delay phase of dealing with the spread of the Coronavirus. However, major differences exist in the level of testing between countries. And, there's a strong correlation between testing and discovery of infected cases. If [...]
20 January 2020 A comprehensive trade agreement between the United States and China was never a realistic possibility: these take years of skillful negotiations to conclude. To be sure, the recently-signed plan has many shortcomings. Predictably, the deal fails to address many of the most contentious issues, e.g. state subsidies and cyber-security. Likewise, the dispute [...]