Europe: Reform Now or Be Left Behind!

The world Europe confronts is changing rapidly. On the hand, the United States is becoming widely viewed as an indispensible, but unreliable ally. Equally importantly, the global economy appears to be entering an era of rapid technological change for which Europe is not fully prepared. To be sure, the region enjoys an enviable economic model; [...]

Strategy 2025: Pivoting from Trump 2.0 Trades?

12 December 2024 In my Strategy 2024 blog entitled "Powell Pivot: What Could Go Wrong or Right?", I suggested global financial markets had entered a cyclical sweet spot. Specifically, the combination of steady (if uneven) global growth, declining inflation, and easing monetary conditions pointed to higher equity market valuations. Indeed, even my bullish S&P 500 [...]

Global Government Debt: Balloon Still Expanding

11 June 2024 Government efforts to mitigate the economic consequences of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the Covid pandemic have led to surging government debt. In the United States, for instance, public sector liabilities are approaching levels not seen before in peacetime (Chart above). And, while I will discuss important differences between countries and [...]