Powell Pivot: What Could Go Wrong or Right?

14 January 2024 On December 13, just weeks after warning it was premature to think the Federal Reserve would begin lowering interest rates, the US central bank gave the green light to at least three cuts in 2024. To be sure, consistent communication has never been a strong point of Chairman Jerome Powell's premiership. Nonetheless, [...]

Soft Landing: What Could Go Wrong?

5 February 2023 After a bruising 2022, global financial markets now have fully embraced the propect of a "soft landing" for the global economy. Even the IMF has revised up its 2023 GDP growth forecast following China's post-Covid opening, declining European natural gas prices, and signs that world-wide inflation may have peaked. In the United [...]

USA: Too Hot, Too Cold, or Just Right?

At the 16 March FOMC meeting, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasised the central bank's determination to lower inflation towards the 2% target. To this end, the FOMC raised the Federal Funds rate by 25bp, and Chairman Powell indicated similar rate hikes should be expected at future meetings. Further, he warned the FOMC was [...]

UK Immigration: Dispelling the Myths

21 February 2020 Concerns about the impact of immigration on jobs, wages, public services, and national identity played a huge role in the United Kingdom's decision to leave the European Union. Unschackled by the EU's freedom of labour movement requirement, Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government unveiled its long-awaited immigration proposal. In practical terms, the new [...]