2 May 2023 Yes, I concede the Russian economy proved to be more resilient than I expected in 2022. Indeed, Russia's GDP contracted only 2.1% last year compared to my projection that the imposition of sanctions would result in a slump of at least 7%. Of course, one must question the current reliability of Russia's [...]
24 February 2023 The end of China's lockdown, signs global inflation is peaking, and the slower pace of US interest rate hikes have led investors to embrace the prospect of an economic "soft landing". Financial market optimism has been particularly evident in Europe. Indeed, collapsing natural gas prices have led to a 10% rally in [...]
15 March 2022 Recent history is full of seminal events. The two World Wars and America's emergence as a global power, the Russian Revolution, the OPEC oil embargos, Mikhail Gorbachev's reforms (perestroika, glasnot, and detente), the collapse of the Soviet Union (and the end of the Cold War), and Deng Xiaoping's "Opening Up" modernisation all [...]
1 March 2022 The military situation on the ground following Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine remains fluid, and many outcomes are still feasible (including a few catastophic scenarios). In order to begin assessing the economic fallout of the invasion, I must make some assumptions. Even now, what seems apparent is Russian President Putin has made [...]