Remarkably, even though the US Federal Reserve has lowered the Fed funds rate by 100bp since last September, US bond yields have risen sharply (roughly 100bp). Market commentators have offered a wide range of explanations for this unusual development. As the incoming Administration has signalled a significant shift in economic strategy, investors will need to [...]
Tag: trump
China 2025: Prepared for Trump 2.0?
How the Sino-American geopolitical relationship evolves during the second Trump presidency may prove to be the key economic and financial market issue in 2025 and beyond. To be sure, the incoming Administration's strategy is still evolving. Pundits consider which of the so-called "C" policy options Mr. Trump will implement, and what the ultimate strategic objectives [...]
Strategy 2025: Pivoting from Trump 2.0 Trades?
In my Strategy 2024 blog entitled "Powell Pivot: What Could Go Wrong or Right?", I suggested global financial markets had entered a cyclical sweet spot. Specifically, the combination of steady (if uneven) global growth, declining inflation, and easing monetary conditions pointed to higher equity market valuations. Indeed, even my bullish S&P 500 projection of 5,800 [...]
Election 2024 Edition #4: It’s the Economy…..
28 October 2024 The US Presidential election is in nearly here, at last. In recent weeks, we have discussed key topics receiving insufficient attention during the bruising campaign: looming fiscal crises, international trade policy, and climate change. In 1992, James Carville famously reminded us the economy is usually the most important determinant of American election [...]