9 February 2021 China was the only major country to record economic growth in 2020, with GDP expanding 2.3%. Indeed, following three consecutive quarters of expansion, national output is already 6.5% above pre-Covid levels. As we approach Chinese New Year, the IMF optimistically projects 8.1% GDP growth during the year of the Ox. Likewise, I [...]
10 September 2020 With Labour Day celebrations marking the unofficial end of summer, the US electoral race now will enter its final (and likely most brutal) phase. We do not need President Clinton's 1992 campaign strategist James Carville, who famously coined the phrase "it's the economy, stupid", to remind us of the role the economy [...]
11 February 2020 Since the election in May, India's GDP growth has decelerated sharply: advancing only 4.5% in Q3 2019 compared to 7.3% in 2018. Does this sharp slowdown in economic activity simply reflect short-term volatility or is something more ominous going on? Identifying the sources of the current weakness will help answer this question. [...]
20 January 2020 A comprehensive trade agreement between the United States and China was never a realistic possibility: these take years of skillful negotiations to conclude. To be sure, the recently-signed plan has many shortcomings. Predictably, the deal fails to address many of the most contentious issues, e.g. state subsidies and cyber-security. Likewise, the dispute [...]