Until now, financial markets have adopted a complacent "wait and see" approach when considering the prospects for the Trump 2.0 trade policy. However, the hope the new Administration's bark would be worse than its bite has been dashed with the imposition of high tariffs on the nation's three largest trading partners. Markets should now contemplate [...]
Tag: tradewar
China 2025: Prepared for Trump 2.0?
How the Sino-American geopolitical relationship evolves during the second Trump presidency may prove to be the key economic and financial market issue in 2025 and beyond. To be sure, the incoming Administration's strategy is still evolving. Pundits consider which of the so-called "C" policy options Mr. Trump will implement, and what the ultimate strategic objectives [...]
Election 2024 Edition #2: International Trade
30 September 2024 In an earlier article "Election 2024: What They're Not Telling Us #1", I suggested the two Presidential candidates were engaged in a "conspiracy of silence" regarding key policy issues. Last time, I indicated American fiscal policy is on an unsustainable course, but both party leaders have evaded the topic, let alone suggested [...]
Asia: Are Countries Taking Sides?
18 April 2024 Since the Global Financial Crisis, globalisation appears to have slowed. Indeed, despite the enormous benefits experienced in the post-WWII era, international trade and financial flows may have gone into reverse (Chart above). In addition, following disruptions caused by the Covid pandemic, some manufacturers have shifted supply chains to domestic producers, or at [...]