Election 2024 Edition #4: It’s the Economy…..

The US Presidential election is in nearly here, at last. In recent weeks, we have discussed key topics receiving insufficient attention during the bruising campaign: looming fiscal crises, international trade policy, and climate change. In 1992, James Carville famously reminded us the economy is usually the most important determinant of American election outcomes. And, surveys [...]

Brexit: Do Markets Think It’s Worth the Price?

4 January 2021 Finally, nearly 1,500 days after the Brexit referendum, the United Kingdom has both left the European Union and signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) outlining its future trading relationship with its largest partner. Political partisans will continue to defend their entrenched positions regarding the merits of this deal. On the one hand, [...]

China: Trade Deal Won’t End Slowdown

12 January 2020 The prospect that this week the USA and China will sign Phase 1 of a trade deal has buoyed financial markets. Of course, I will assess the impact of the agreement as details emerge. However, initial optimism is warranted if the plan represents the first step towards a comprehensive trade agreement (even [...]