Brexit: Do Markets Think It’s Worth the Price?

4 January 2021 Finally, nearly 1,500 days after the Brexit referendum, the United Kingdom has both left the European Union and signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) outlining its future trading relationship with its largest partner. Political partisans will continue to defend their entrenched positions regarding the merits of this deal. On the one hand, [...]

UK Sterling: Pounded! What’s Next?

11 October 2019 Understandably, perhaps, Brexit fatigue is widespread. However, the issues at stake are far too important to allow the outcome to be decided simply because of weariness. Not only are the economic implications significant, but the result will define the relationship between the UK executive government, the Parliament, the courts, and the electorate [...]

No Deal Brexit: Project Fear or Simple Facts?

16 December 2018 Following the Brexit debate often reminds me of cartoon characters who, prior to proceeding to their destination, frantically spin their wheels without actually moving. Such has been the case for much of 2018. After the Parliamentary drama of the past few weeks, however, issues have become clearer and options have narrowed. In [...]

UK: Consumer Weakness Will Persist For Years, Not a Few Quarters

1 August 2017 The recent release of second quarter GDP data had something for everyone.  For the post-Brexit sceptics, the meagre 0.3% gain (following a similarly paltry advance in Q1) confirmed the economic recovery was faltering. Recently, weak consumer spending has been a major headwind, resulting from modest income growth and higher prices following sterling’s [...]