25 June 2021 Despite US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's attempts to reassure investors, financial markets are concerned about inflation. Likewise, price growth has accelerated in key emerging market countries. In response, central banks in Brazil, Russia, Mexico, and Turkey have already begun to tighten monetary conditions. Is Emerging Market inflation temporary? That is, does it [...]
26 March 2021 President Erdogan's decision to sack Turkey's central bank governor Naci Agbal last week following the CBRT's decision to raise interest rates 200bp has increased volatility in EM currency markets. Is this just the latest episode of Turkish political intrigue? Alternatively, given both Brazil and Russia also lifted key rates, has a more [...]
28 January 2021 Joe Biden is now the 46th President of the United States, and Anthony Blinken has been confirmed as the new Secretary of State. President Biden has promised substantive changes in American foreign policy, and initial Executive Orders indicate he will act on this pledge. To be sure, American international policy decisions are [...]
17 April 2019 In our 2019 Global Strategy blog entitled "Turning (Even More) Defensive" (published in September 2018), we outlined the broad macro themes we expected to drive financial markets. Given the sharp market swings that have occurred since last Autumn, I thought it would be worthwhile to review these themes in light of subsequent [...]