Is Europe in secular decline? If so, can it be halted? Since as recently as 1990, the region's share of global GDP has declined from 24% to 14%. Even compared to other advanced economies, Europe has lost ground. Indeed, since 2005 European GDP growth has trailed the USA by 0.7% annually (the gap is less [...]
Tag: russia
Germany: Curing Europe’s Sick Man?
15 October 2023 Once admired as Europe's growth engine, Germany is now being identified as the region's "sick economy". Indeed, Germany's post-Covid recovery has lagged far behind the world's other advanced countries (Chart below). And, the nation's underperformance pre-dates the pandemic. What lies behind Germany's growth malaise, and can Europe's "Sick Man" be cured? To [...]
Russia: Recession May Continue into 2024
2 May 2023 Yes, I concede the Russian economy proved to be more resilient than I expected in 2022. Indeed, Russia's GDP contracted only 2.1% last year compared to my projection that the imposition of sanctions would result in a slump of at least 7%. Of course, one must question the current reliability of Russia's [...]
Europe: Ukraine Invasion — A Year On
24 February 2023 The end of China's lockdown, signs global inflation is peaking, and the slower pace of US interest rate hikes have led investors to embrace the prospect of an economic "soft landing". Financial market optimism has been particularly evident in Europe. Indeed, collapsing natural gas prices have led to a 10% rally in [...]