12 May 2024 Turkey has long been a classic boom-bust economy. Indeed, the volatility of Turkish GDP growth is higher than most comparable Emerging market and advanced economies (next Chart). In addition, while the global economy has experienced two episodes of negative GDP growth since 1980, Turkey has endured five recessions. In my March 2021 [...]
30 June 2023 I love Spain: the food, wine, sun, landscape, art, architecture, and the unmistakable roar of happy people cascading into the streeets from busy bodegas! Indeed, I just returned from trendy Valencia where the post-Covid atmosphere is bouyant. The 1992 Maastricht treaty -- outlining a path towards the introduction of the Euro in [...]
29 September 2019 The European economy has been decelerating since 2017. Indeed, the meagre 0.2% gain in GDP during Q2 2019 suggests economic activity may be stalling. And, as Germany, Italy, and the UK all recorded negative growth rates during the interval (and with Q3 looking decidedly weak as well), financial markets are increasingly concerned [...]
5 April 2019 In elections last year, voters in both Brazil and Mexico opted overwhelmingly for populist candidates. To be sure, Latin American populism takes many shapes. In Mexico, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's version (AMLO) promised significantly higher spending on social programs and infrastructure. Brazil's new President Jair Bolsonaro has pledged assertive efforts to clamp [...]