Is Europe in secular decline? If so, can it be halted? Since as recently as 1990, the region's share of global GDP has declined from 24% to 14%. Even compared to other advanced economies, Europe has lost ground. Indeed, since 2005 European GDP growth has trailed the USA by 0.7% annually (the gap is less [...]
Tag: recession
Emerging Markets: Has the Time Come?
28 January 2024 At last year's BRICS Summit in South Africa, national leaders were all smiles; ushering in what they believe will be a more influential era for the Global South. Emerging market investors, on the other hand, have had little to celebrate, as EM markets have dramatically underperformed during the past 15 years -- [...]
Powell Pivot: What Could Go Wrong or Right?
14 January 2024 On December 13, just weeks after warning it was premature to think the Federal Reserve would begin lowering interest rates, the US central bank gave the green light to at least three cuts in 2024. To be sure, consistent communication has never been a strong point of Chairman Jerome Powell's premiership. Nonetheless, [...]
Strategy 2024: Searching for a Soft Landing
13 December 2023 Happy Holidays! Another challenging year is coming to a close. Yes, the US (and global) economy defied expectations of recession. True, the S&P 500 has recorded a 20% gain. However, the rally was narrow: only technology outperformed the market. Indeed, of the 8 market sub-sectors, only tech, industrials, and financials posted positive [...]