Until now, financial markets have adopted a complacent "wait and see" approach when considering the prospects for the Trump 2.0 trade policy. However, the hope the new Administration's bark would be worse than its bite has been dashed with the imposition of high tariffs on the nation's three largest trading partners. Markets should now contemplate [...]
Tag: protectionism
Strategy 2025: Pivoting from Trump 2.0 Trades?
In my Strategy 2024 blog entitled "Powell Pivot: What Could Go Wrong or Right?", I suggested global financial markets had entered a cyclical sweet spot. Specifically, the combination of steady (if uneven) global growth, declining inflation, and easing monetary conditions pointed to higher equity market valuations. Indeed, even my bullish S&P 500 projection of 5,800 [...]
China: Trade Deal Won’t End Slowdown
12 January 2020 The prospect that this week the USA and China will sign Phase 1 of a trade deal has buoyed financial markets. Of course, I will assess the impact of the agreement as details emerge. However, initial optimism is warranted if the plan represents the first step towards a comprehensive trade agreement (even [...]
Europe: Fiscal Stimulus Key to Avoid Recession
29 September 2019 The European economy has been decelerating since 2017. Indeed, the meagre 0.2% gain in GDP during Q2 2019 suggests economic activity may be stalling. And, as Germany, Italy, and the UK all recorded negative growth rates during the interval (and with Q3 looking decidedly weak as well), financial markets are increasingly concerned [...]