28 October 2024 The US Presidential election is in nearly here, at last. In recent weeks, we have discussed key topics receiving insufficient attention during the bruising campaign: looming fiscal crises, international trade policy, and climate change. In 1992, James Carville famously reminded us the economy is usually the most important determinant of American election [...]
Government efforts to mitigate the economic consequences of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the Covid pandemic have led to surging government debt. In the United States, for instance, public sector liabilities are approaching levels not seen before in peacetime (Chart above). And, while I will discuss important differences between countries and regions, the United [...]
28 March 2024 In the past week, two important things happened in Japan. First of all, the Nikkei stock market index hit an all-time high; finally, eclipsing the previous record established 35 years ago. Following decades of underperformance, Japanese equities have left US stocks in the dust during the past two years. Meanwhile, the Bank [...]
10 March 2024 In a blog six years ago, I suggested China's growth slowdown had just begun. I indicated the headwinds emanating from the property crisis, shrinking population, weak productivity growth, debt deleveraging, and the rebalancing towards consumer-led activity would slow China's long-term GDP growth potential towards 3.5% to 4%. In the interim, most investors [...]