6 August 2019 The US Federal Reserve's recent decision to reduce interest rates a stingy 25bp, and to deliver a less-dovish-than-expected statement raises more questions than it answered. Was the rate cut a one-time adjustment to provide insurance against the prospect of weaker growth ahead? Did Chairman Jerome Powell react to White House pressure? If [...]
2 May 2019 The sharp decline in equity markets during Q4 2018, reflected the likelihood that global economic activity would decelerate in 2019. Some commentators went even further, coining a new phrase, and posing the question of whether a "Japanification" of the global economy was taking place. That is, even a decade after the Global [...]
23 January 2019 One of the unintended, albeit unsurprising, consequences of the current period of ultra-loose monetary conditions has been the extraordinary buildup in debt worldwide. The top Chart illustrates that during the previous business cycle global debt had remained stable at what seemed an elevated level of 80% of GDP. In the aftermath of [...]
10 January 2019 Happy New Year! I am back at work for the first time since releasing my blog in mid-December. Did I miss anything??!! In a word, it's been crazy! In September, we published our 2019 Global Strategy Outlook entitled "Turning (Even More) Defensive", in which we warned that the year ahead would be [...]