13 February 2018 In my 2018 Investment Strategy blog entitled "Aging Rally or More to Play For?", I indicated that while the US (and global) equity market rally was aging in calendar terms, the factors traditionally signalling the end of the cycle were not yet evident. Nevertheless, I suggested that the US market would experience [...]
Despite falling (and in some cases cyclically low) unemployment rates, wage gains are more modest now than a year ago. Central bankers are stumped by this mystery. Whatever happened to the Philips Curve, which showed a strong relationship between unemployment and wage/price inflation? At any rate, as long as wage gains remain modest, central bankers [...]
The fall in March CPI inflation is welcome news to the ECB. The decline indicates that the recent rise in prices was fully the result of higher energy costs. This news will allow the ECB to remain on hold this year. Low inflation, a cyclical economic acceleration, and easy monetary conditions point to higher equity [...]