7 March 2021 We have all marvelled at the dramatic expansion of the US Federal Reserve's balance sheet following both the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the Covid pandemic. And, the Chart illustrates quantitative easing (QE) policies have had a similar impact on the asset holdings of central banks worldwide (thanks to Yardeni Research for [...]
28 February 2021 There's a whiff of inflation in the air: commodities are soaring, bond yields are rising, and yield curves are steepening. And, while these trends actually began last Summer (and despite Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's reassuring comments in Congress), equity market volatility is increasing. In the period ahead, financial markets will confront several [...]
18 February 2021 Pundits are projecting the onset of the next Commodity Supercycle. To be sure, prices of primary products have spiked dramatically in the past year, and many commodity-linked currencies have begun to rally. The Brazilian Real, however, has been noticeably absent, despite the country's heavy reliance on this sector (Chart above). Unfortunately, the [...]
11 February 2020 Since the election in May, India's GDP growth has decelerated sharply: advancing only 4.5% in Q3 2019 compared to 7.3% in 2018. Does this sharp slowdown in economic activity simply reflect short-term volatility or is something more ominous going on? Identifying the sources of the current weakness will help answer this question. [...]