7 August 2023 Africa has underperformed economically for a long time. Per capita GDP has risen less than 1% annually during the past 30 years (chart below); lagging all other emerging market regions during this period (although Latam has also slowed in the past decade). During this interval, meanwhile, output per person in the advanced [...]
12 May 2022 In my 2022 Strategy blog entitled "Avoiding Stagflation?" (published 1 December 2021), I suggested global financial market volatility was poised to rise, and equity and bond returns would be negative. On a relative basis, however, I made the case for an outperformance of European markets. Much has happened during the past six [...]
17 April 2020 We have all seen the evidence that investors have deserted Emerging Markets in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. Indeed, the following Chart illustrates the liquidation of EM assets has been considerably larger than in past episodes, including the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). As a result, the following Chart illustrates that EM [...]
Latam Outlook IMF 2017