23 January 2019 One of the unintended, albeit unsurprising, consequences of the current period of ultra-loose monetary conditions has been the extraordinary buildup in debt worldwide. The top Chart illustrates that during the previous business cycle global debt had remained stable at what seemed an elevated level of 80% of GDP. In the aftermath of [...]
16 December 2018 Following the Brexit debate often reminds me of cartoon characters who, prior to proceeding to their destination, frantically spin their wheels without actually moving. Such has been the case for much of 2018. After the Parliamentary drama of the past few weeks, however, issues have become clearer and options have narrowed. In [...]
25 October 2018 We all know China's economy is slowing. Indeed, markets and pundits agonise when GDP results fractionally dip below expectations, as highlighted by the spike in market volatility following the recent news Chinese output advanced "only" 6.5% during Q2 2018 (compared to the 6.6% forecast). To be sure, such results seem disappointing, as [...]
The March PMI release confirms that the European economy has accelerated since last summer. Stronger growth, low inflatio, and continued monetary accomodation supports the case that European equities will outperform the USA. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/manufacturing-pmi