Can Europe Surprise? Only With Reforms

Is Europe in secular decline? If so, can it be halted? Since as recently as 1990, the region's share of global GDP has declined from 24% to 14%. Even compared to other advanced economies, Europe has lost ground. Indeed, since 2005 European GDP growth has trailed the USA by 0.7% annually (the gap is less [...]

Strategy 2024: Searching for a Soft Landing

13 December 2023 Happy Holidays! Another challenging year is coming to a close. Yes, the US (and global) economy defied expectations of recession. True, the S&P 500 has recorded a 20% gain. However, the rally was narrow: only technology outperformed the market. Indeed, of the 8 market sub-sectors, only tech, industrials, and financials posted positive [...]

USA: Too Hot, Too Cold, or Just Right?

At the 16 March FOMC meeting, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasised the central bank's determination to lower inflation towards the 2% target. To this end, the FOMC raised the Federal Funds rate by 25bp, and Chairman Powell indicated similar rate hikes should be expected at future meetings. Further, he warned the FOMC was [...]

Global Money: Will Boom Go Bust?

7 March 2021 We have all marvelled at the dramatic expansion of the US Federal Reserve's balance sheet following both the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the Covid pandemic. And, the Chart illustrates quantitative easing (QE) policies have had a similar impact on the asset holdings of central banks worldwide (thanks to Yardeni Research for [...]