Ukraine: Global Implications

1 March 2022 The military situation on the ground following Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine remains fluid, and many outcomes are still feasible (including a few catastophic scenarios). In order to begin assessing the economic fallout of the invasion, I must make some assumptions. Even now, what seems apparent is Russian President Putin has made [...]

Biden’s Foreign Policy Reset: Market Impact

28 January 2021 Joe Biden is now the 46th President of the United States, and Anthony Blinken has been confirmed as the new Secretary of State. President Biden has promised substantive changes in American foreign policy, and initial Executive Orders indicate he will act on this pledge. To be sure, American international policy decisions are [...]

Brexit: Do Markets Think It’s Worth the Price?

4 January 2021 Finally, nearly 1,500 days after the Brexit referendum, the United Kingdom has both left the European Union and signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) outlining its future trading relationship with its largest partner. Political partisans will continue to defend their entrenched positions regarding the merits of this deal. On the one hand, [...]

Europe: Will Second Wave Derail Recovery?

12 October 2020After Europe's devastasting Coronavirus outbreak in early 2020, painful measures succeeded in suppressing the spread of Covid-19 during the summer. As health experts warned, however, social lockdown is only akin to hitting the pause button; buying time to allow more sustainable mitigation to be put in place. Unfortunately, as lockdown measures were eased [...]