12 May 2022 In my 2022 Strategy blog entitled "Avoiding Stagflation?" (published 1 December 2021), I suggested global financial market volatility was poised to rise, and equity and bond returns would be negative. On a relative basis, however, I made the case for an outperformance of European markets. Much has happened during the past six [...]
1 March 2022 The military situation on the ground following Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine remains fluid, and many outcomes are still feasible (including a few catastophic scenarios). In order to begin assessing the economic fallout of the invasion, I must make some assumptions. Even now, what seems apparent is Russian President Putin has made [...]
28 January 2021 Joe Biden is now the 46th President of the United States, and Anthony Blinken has been confirmed as the new Secretary of State. President Biden has promised substantive changes in American foreign policy, and initial Executive Orders indicate he will act on this pledge. To be sure, American international policy decisions are [...]
4 January 2021 Finally, nearly 1,500 days after the Brexit referendum, the United Kingdom has both left the European Union and signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) outlining its future trading relationship with its largest partner. Political partisans will continue to defend their entrenched positions regarding the merits of this deal. On the one hand, [...]