In my Strategy 2024 blog entitled "Powell Pivot: What Could Go Wrong or Right?", I suggested global financial markets had entered a cyclical sweet spot. Specifically, the combination of steady (if uneven) global growth, declining inflation, and easing monetary conditions pointed to higher equity market valuations. Indeed, even my bullish S&P 500 projection of 5,800 [...]
Tag: Europe
Global Government Debt: Balloon Still Expanding
Government efforts to mitigate the economic consequences of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the Covid pandemic have led to surging government debt. In the United States, for instance, public sector liabilities are approaching levels not seen before in peacetime (Chart above). And, while I will discuss important differences between countries and regions, the United [...]
Strategy 2024: Searching for a Soft Landing
13 December 2023 Happy Holidays! Another challenging year is coming to a close. Yes, the US (and global) economy defied expectations of recession. True, the S&P 500 has recorded a 20% gain. However, the rally was narrow: only technology outperformed the market. Indeed, of the 8 market sub-sectors, only tech, industrials, and financials posted positive [...]
Germany: Curing Europe’s Sick Man?
15 October 2023 Once admired as Europe's growth engine, Germany is now being identified as the region's "sick economy". Indeed, Germany's post-Covid recovery has lagged far behind the world's other advanced countries (Chart below). And, the nation's underperformance pre-dates the pandemic. What lies behind Germany's growth malaise, and can Europe's "Sick Man" be cured? To [...]