1 March 2022 The military situation on the ground following Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine remains fluid, and many outcomes are still feasible (including a few catastophic scenarios). In order to begin assessing the economic fallout of the invasion, I must make some assumptions. Even now, what seems apparent is Russian President Putin has made [...]
13 January 2021 There are no winners in Brexit, or so they say. In the recently agreed EU-UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA), the United Kingdom was able to "regain control" of its immigration policy, to maintain tariff-free access to the EU Single Market (for now at least), to regain the ability to negotiate independent trade [...]
4 January 2021 Finally, nearly 1,500 days after the Brexit referendum, the United Kingdom has both left the European Union and signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) outlining its future trading relationship with its largest partner. Political partisans will continue to defend their entrenched positions regarding the merits of this deal. On the one hand, [...]
20 March 2020 Initial data from China indicate the economic impact of the Coronavirus and efforts to prevent its spread will be significant. I will make some preliminary global economic projections, although they come with a greater degree of uncertainty than normal. Perhaps more importantly, I will set out some guideposts about how to assess [...]