1 December 2021 As investors establish their 2022 market strategy, I summarise my answers to many key questions: Will the current rise in inflation be temporary or are rapidly rising prices here to stay? In the USA, for example, I expect price growth to peak in the first quarter of 2022, and "core" inflation to [...]
25 June 2021 Despite US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's attempts to reassure investors, financial markets are concerned about inflation. Likewise, price growth has accelerated in key emerging market countries. In response, central banks in Brazil, Russia, Mexico, and Turkey have already begun to tighten monetary conditions. Is Emerging Market inflation temporary? That is, does it [...]
6 June 2021 Typically, investors must juggle numerous factors while making their global asset allocation decisions. In this regard, the next 12-18 months may be more straightforward. By now, no one doubts massive monetary and fiscal stimulus will produce a sharp, V-shaped 6% global recovery in 2021, with China and the USA leading the way [...]
15 April 2021 The Russian ruble (RUB) -- traditionally a petro-currency -- has not benefited from the recent rise in oil prices. Indeed, during the recent bout of Emerging Market currency volatility -- provoked by a combination of rising US bond yields and problems in Turkey -- the Russian central bank (CBR) raised interest rates [...]