10 May 2020 Every day one hears the grim news regarding the global economic outlook. Nevertheless, financial markets continue to rebound relentlessly. What's up? The markets are working through various phases in coming to grips with the Covid-19 emergency. In the first phase, investors panicked as the Coronavirus spread world-wide, lockdowns were intensified, and fears [...]
17 April 2020 We have all seen the evidence that investors have deserted Emerging Markets in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. Indeed, the following Chart illustrates the liquidation of EM assets has been considerably larger than in past episodes, including the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). As a result, the following Chart illustrates that EM [...]
20 March 2020 Initial data from China indicate the economic impact of the Coronavirus and efforts to prevent its spread will be significant. I will make some preliminary global economic projections, although they come with a greater degree of uncertainty than normal. Perhaps more importantly, I will set out some guideposts about how to assess [...]
6 March 2019 Following the BJP's dramatic 2014 electoral victory, Prime Minister Narendra Modi enjoyed a mandate to implement economic reform. From the beginning, however, the program faced criticism. On the one hand, Hindu nationalist believe the changes do not go far enough in promoting their interests, whereas non-Hindus charge the benefits have not been [...]