28 March 2024 In the past week, two important things happened in Japan. First of all, the Nikkei stock market index hit an all-time high; finally, eclipsing the previous record established 35 years ago. Following decades of underperformance, Japanese equities have left US stocks in the dust during the past two years. Meanwhile, the Bank [...]
10 March 2024 In a blog six years ago, I suggested China's growth slowdown had just begun. I indicated the headwinds emanating from the property crisis, shrinking population, weak productivity growth, debt deleveraging, and the rebalancing towards consumer-led activity would slow China's long-term GDP growth potential towards 3.5% to 4%. In the interim, most investors [...]
30 January 2020 In its recently released report on foreign exchange markets, the US Treasury added Switzerland to its watchlist of currency manipulators. To be sure, the Swiss franc does meet some of the criteria. Indeed, Switzerland's current account surplus is a staggering 10% of GDP, and its bilateral trade surplus with the USA has [...]