23 January 2019 One of the unintended, albeit unsurprising, consequences of the current period of ultra-loose monetary conditions has been the extraordinary buildup in debt worldwide. The top Chart illustrates that during the previous business cycle global debt had remained stable at what seemed an elevated level of 80% of GDP. In the aftermath of [...]
25 October 2018 We all know China's economy is slowing. Indeed, markets and pundits agonise when GDP results fractionally dip below expectations, as highlighted by the spike in market volatility following the recent news Chinese output advanced "only" 6.5% during Q2 2018 (compared to the 6.6% forecast). To be sure, such results seem disappointing, as [...]
30 September 2018 Brazil will go to the polls next weekend in perhaps the most wide-open, consequential election in its history. I will leave it to more clever pundits to predict the outcome (especially after Brexit and the US election results!). Rather, following recent volatility in emerging markets, I will outline the challenges the next [...]
9 July 2019 Has the impetus behind European reform, so evident following French President Macron's victory last year, now stalled? The recent Italian election result illustrates that the appeal of populist remedies to Europe's ills has not receded, and Euro-scepticism remains widespread. The challenge remains for Europe's mainstream national leaders, along with the EU institutions [...]