2 March 2025 "Plus ca change" is a French adage loosely meaning "the more things change, the more they stay the same". To be sure, France enjoys an enviable socio-economic model: producing high levels of productivity and living standards combined with a strong commitment to equity and sustainability. Indeed, I have just returned from an [...]
16 October 2024 In my last two blogs, I have focused on key issues to which the two Presidential candidates have paid insufficient attention: the bloated government budget deficit and surging public sector debt, as well as international trade policy and rising US foreign indebtedness. In both cases, I gave the narrow edge to Vice [...]
11 June 2024 Government efforts to mitigate the economic consequences of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the Covid pandemic have led to surging government debt. In the United States, for instance, public sector liabilities are approaching levels not seen before in peacetime (Chart above). And, while I will discuss important differences between countries and [...]
10 March 2024 In a blog six years ago, I suggested China's growth slowdown had just begun. I indicated the headwinds emanating from the property crisis, shrinking population, weak productivity growth, debt deleveraging, and the rebalancing towards consumer-led activity would slow China's long-term GDP growth potential towards 3.5% to 4%. In the interim, most investors [...]