22 January 2023 In addition, China's shrinking population will continue to shape both the nation's long-term economic strategy, and the government's short-term policy focus. In particular, with inflation low, monetary and fiscal policy will need to remain stimulative. However, government spending priorities will need to be altered dramatically. This shift will not only support China's [...]
28 October 2022 At China's recently concluded 20th Communist Party Congress, Xi Jinping was re-elected to an unprecedented third term as Party leader. Xi now appears set to lead both the Party and government for the next five years, and likely even longer. With political power now secured, can the same be said about the [...]
31 May 2022 In my March 2019 blog entitled "India: Long Growth Runway Still Lies Ahead", I suggested India may enjoy faster economic growth than all other large economies during the next decade, including China. The following Chart indicates the IMF now shares this appraisal, as India's long-term potential GDP exceeds all other countries (except [...]
15 March 2022 Recent history is full of seminal events. The two World Wars and America's emergence as a global power, the Russian Revolution, the OPEC oil embargos, Mikhail Gorbachev's reforms (perestroika, glasnot, and detente), the collapse of the Soviet Union (and the end of the Cold War), and Deng Xiaoping's "Opening Up" modernisation all [...]