How the Sino-American geopolitical relationship evolves during the second Trump presidency may prove to be the key economic and financial market issue in 2025 and beyond. To be sure, the incoming Administration's strategy is still evolving. Pundits consider which of the so-called "C" policy options Mr. Trump will implement, and what the ultimate strategic objectives [...]
Tag: china
Strategy 2025: Pivoting from Trump 2.0 Trades?
In my Strategy 2024 blog entitled "Powell Pivot: What Could Go Wrong or Right?", I suggested global financial markets had entered a cyclical sweet spot. Specifically, the combination of steady (if uneven) global growth, declining inflation, and easing monetary conditions pointed to higher equity market valuations. Indeed, even my bullish S&P 500 projection of 5,800 [...]
Election 2024 Edition #2: International Trade
30 September 2024 In an earlier article "Election 2024: What They're Not Telling Us #1", I suggested the two Presidential candidates were engaged in a "conspiracy of silence" regarding key policy issues. Last time, I indicated American fiscal policy is on an unsustainable course, but both party leaders have evaded the topic, let alone suggested [...]
Global Government Debt: Balloon Still Expanding
11 June 2024 Government efforts to mitigate the economic consequences of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the Covid pandemic have led to surging government debt. In the United States, for instance, public sector liabilities are approaching levels not seen before in peacetime (Chart above). And, while I will discuss important differences between countries and [...]