Remarkably, even though the US Federal Reserve has lowered the Fed funds rate by 100bp since last September, US bond yields have risen sharply (roughly 100bp). Market commentators have offered a wide range of explanations for this unusual development. As the incoming Administration has signalled a significant shift in economic strategy, investors will need to [...]
Tag: budget deficit
Election 2024 Edition #2: International Trade
30 September 2024 In an earlier article "Election 2024: What They're Not Telling Us #1", I suggested the two Presidential candidates were engaged in a "conspiracy of silence" regarding key policy issues. Last time, I indicated American fiscal policy is on an unsustainable course, but both party leaders have evaded the topic, let alone suggested [...]
Election 2024: What They’re Not Telling Us
20 September 2024 The US election is now less than seven weeks away. We have witnessed two quite memorable Presidential debates. The candidates have clashed on issues of character, fitness for office, U-turns on previous policy positions, etc. All important topics, to be sure. However, direct questions on how to address key policy issues are [...]
Powell Pivot: What Could Go Wrong or Right?
14 January 2024 On December 13, just weeks after warning it was premature to think the Federal Reserve would begin lowering interest rates, the US central bank gave the green light to at least three cuts in 2024. To be sure, consistent communication has never been a strong point of Chairman Jerome Powell's premiership. Nonetheless, [...]