23 January 2019 One of the unintended, albeit unsurprising, consequences of the current period of ultra-loose monetary conditions has been the extraordinary buildup in debt worldwide. The top Chart illustrates that during the previous business cycle global debt had remained stable at what seemed an elevated level of 80% of GDP. In the aftermath of [...]
10 January 2019 Happy New Year! I am back at work for the first time since releasing my blog in mid-December. Did I miss anything??!! In a word, it's been crazy! In September, we published our 2019 Global Strategy Outlook entitled "Turning (Even More) Defensive", in which we warned that the year ahead would be [...]
4 December 2018 Enjoy my 2019 Strategy Podcast. The broadcast complements and updates my September blog entitled "2019 Strategy: Turning (Even More) Defensive!" Also look at previous blogs on various country assessments and policy issues -- all found in the Archive of Recent Blogs.
19 September 2018 As analysts return from summer holidays, they tend to extend their earnings forecasts into the next year. In this spirit, I am casting my strategic gaze into 2019 as well. In order to set the stage, a brief review of our 2018 strategic themes may be helpful. In our December essay "Aging [...]