14 January 2024 On December 13, just weeks after warning it was premature to think the Federal Reserve would begin lowering interest rates, the US central bank gave the green light to at least three cuts in 2024. To be sure, consistent communication has never been a strong point of Chairman Jerome Powell's premiership. Nonetheless, [...]
13 December 2023 Happy Holidays! Another challenging year is coming to a close. Yes, the US (and global) economy defied expectations of recession. True, the S&P 500 has recorded a 20% gain. However, the rally was narrow: only technology outperformed the market. Indeed, of the 8 market sub-sectors, only tech, industrials, and financials posted positive [...]
12 May 2022 In my 2022 Strategy blog entitled "Avoiding Stagflation?" (published 1 December 2021), I suggested global financial market volatility was poised to rise, and equity and bond returns would be negative. On a relative basis, however, I made the case for an outperformance of European markets. Much has happened during the past six [...]
1 December 2021 As investors establish their 2022 market strategy, I summarise my answers to many key questions: Will the current rise in inflation be temporary or are rapidly rising prices here to stay? In the USA, for example, I expect price growth to peak in the first quarter of 2022, and "core" inflation to [...]