15 March 2020

The news on the Coronavirus continues to be alarming. However, perhaps Korea’s experience is beginning to offer a glimmer of hope. Worldometer provides data indicating that the new case count has slowed sharply during the past two weeks (Chart above). To be sure, the number of infected people has not peaked, nor is it certain that the numbers may not pick up again (again, as Worldometer data illustrates).

What can we learn? Most importantly, testing is crucial. The following Chart from the WHO illustrates that Korea has been testing extensively from the outset of the outbreak. This is key, especially as many governments are transitioning towards policies aimed at delaying the spread of the disease. Korea’s experience is that containment works, e.g. testing and contact indentification. Containment efforts should continue during the delay phase. As a caveat, I expect the number of new cases to jump sharply in the USA in coming weeks, as testing begins in earnest. However, it is better to have an accurate assessment of the problem.

The following Chart (again from the WHO) illustrates that Korea’s mortality rate has been low. Again, this is partially a result of widespread testing.

As elderly people are amongst the most vulnerable, one would have expected Korea’s number of fatalities to be higher. However, demographics have not been a great predictor of mortality rates so far. For example, the ratio in Germany is low, while the percentage is high in Italy (large elderly population) and Iran (very youthful). Testing and the quality of the health care system are key factors.

Korean officials also suggest the use of online technology to maintain contact with patients at home has helped slow the new case count and limit fatalities.

Early days, but at least some good news.