Covid-19: US Lags on Testing

12 March 2020 The US imposed a travel ban with Europe. The UK is transitioning from the from the containment to delay phase of dealing with the spread of the Coronavirus. However, major differences exist in the level of testing between countries. And, there's a strong correlation between testing and discovery of infected cases. If [...]

Sino-US Trade: First Step on a Long Journey

20 January 2020 A comprehensive trade agreement between the United States and China was never a realistic possibility: these take years of skillful negotiations to conclude. To be sure, the recently-signed plan has many shortcomings. Predictably, the deal fails to address many of the most contentious issues, e.g. state subsidies and cyber-security. Likewise, the dispute [...]

China: Trade Deal Won’t End Slowdown

12 January 2020 The prospect that this week the USA and China will sign Phase 1 of a trade deal has buoyed financial markets. Of course, I will assess the impact of the agreement as details emerge. However, initial optimism is warranted if the plan represents the first step towards a comprehensive trade agreement (even [...]

Currency Wars Ahead?

6 August 2019 The US Federal Reserve's recent decision to reduce interest rates a stingy 25bp, and to deliver a less-dovish-than-expected statement raises more questions than it answered. Was the rate cut a one-time adjustment to provide insurance against the prospect of weaker growth ahead? Did Chairman Jerome Powell react to White House pressure? If [...]