USA and European Union: With Friends Like These…..

24 June 2018 Even in comparison with the recent deterioration in diplomatic norms, the breakdown of the recent Group of 7 meeting was breath-taking.  The long-planned gathering, cut short by US President Trump's early departure for his hastily planned Singapore summit with North Korea, began with Donald Trump's advocacy to include Russia in future occasions.  [...]

Iran Sanctions: JCPOA RIP?

18 May 2018 Despite frenetic diplomatic efforts, including the evident bonhomie between Presidents Macron and Trump, the United States has withdrawn from the Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA).  The world awaits details of America's new approach to confronting Iran's nuclear ambitions and its aggressive regional political behaviour.   The Trump Administration has announced already its intention to [...]

S&P 500: Tipping Point?

13 February 2018 In my 2018 Investment Strategy blog entitled "Aging Rally or More to Play For?", I indicated that while the US (and global) equity market rally was aging in calendar terms, the factors traditionally signalling the end of the cycle were not yet evident.  Nevertheless, I suggested that the US market would experience [...]

State Of the Union: Jam Today, Cuts Tomorrow

23 January 2018 On 30 January, President Trump will deliver his first State of the Union speech.  To be sure, the state of the US economy is healthy  (I will leave it to others to assess the state of the Union). Indeed, GDP has  advanced at over a 3% clip during the past nine months.  [...]