11 November 2019 Easy monetary conditions have fueled the global equity index to an all-time high. Looking forward, key market risks centre on the likelihood of a 2020 global recession, the possibilty of a trade deal between the United States and China, and political risks, especially as US and UK voters go to the polls. [...]
30 September 2018 Brazil will go to the polls next weekend in perhaps the most wide-open, consequential election in its history. I will leave it to more clever pundits to predict the outcome (especially after Brexit and the US election results!). Rather, following recent volatility in emerging markets, I will outline the challenges the next [...]
18 May 2018 Despite frenetic diplomatic efforts, including the evident bonhomie between Presidents Macron and Trump, the United States has withdrawn from the Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA). The world awaits details of America's new approach to confronting Iran's nuclear ambitions and its aggressive regional political behaviour. The Trump Administration has announced already its intention to [...]
13 February 2018 In my 2018 Investment Strategy blog entitled "Aging Rally or More to Play For?", I indicated that while the US (and global) equity market rally was aging in calendar terms, the factors traditionally signalling the end of the cycle were not yet evident. Nevertheless, I suggested that the US market would experience [...]