UK: Consumer Weakness Will Persist For Years, Not a Few Quarters

1 August 2017 The recent release of second quarter GDP data had something for everyone.  For the post-Brexit sceptics, the meagre 0.3% gain (following a similarly paltry advance in Q1) confirmed the economic recovery was faltering. Recently, weak consumer spending has been a major headwind, resulting from modest income growth and higher prices following sterling’s [...]

UK: Brexit — The Clock is Ticking, Loudly

22 June 2017 The Conservative Party’s failure to gain a majority of Parliamentary seats in the June 8 snap election has shifted the landscape on key policy issues.  In particular, Prime Minister Teresa May had asked the British electorate for a mandate to adopt an aggressive stance in upcoming Brexit negotiations, including walking away if [...]

Macron Victory: Stay Overweight Europe For Now

24 April 2017 After the most unpredictable and consequential election in recent French history, Emmanuel Macron and Marion Le Pen have advanced to the second round run-off on May 7.  Even with the field now reduced to two candidates, however, the nation still faces a stark choice, as the candidates represent distinctly different visions about [...]