17 April 2019 In our 2019 Global Strategy blog entitled "Turning (Even More) Defensive" (published in September 2018), we outlined the broad macro themes we expected to drive financial markets. Given the sharp market swings that have occurred since last Autumn, I thought it would be worthwhile to review these themes in light of subsequent [...]
21 March 2019 At its March meeting, the US Federal Reserve signaled it would keep interest rates unchanged in 2019. In a similar fashion, the European Central Bank (ECB) at its recent gathering signaled interest rate hikes will be delayed until next year, and additional monetary support was forthcoming. But, that's not the end of [...]
6 February 2019 During these Winter months, my breakfast typically consists of a big, steaming bowl of porridge! As in the Goldilocks fairy tale, however, getting the recipe right requires some experimentation. Often the same is true of monetary policy decision-making. In search of a soft landing for the US economy -- neither too hot, [...]
23 January 2019 One of the unintended, albeit unsurprising, consequences of the current period of ultra-loose monetary conditions has been the extraordinary buildup in debt worldwide. The top Chart illustrates that during the previous business cycle global debt had remained stable at what seemed an elevated level of 80% of GDP. In the aftermath of [...]