13 December 2023 Happy Holidays! Another challenging year is coming to a close. Yes, the US (and global) economy defied expectations of recession. True, the S&P 500 has recorded a 20% gain. However, the rally was narrow: only technology outperformed the market. Indeed, of the 8 market sub-sectors, only tech, industrials, and financials posted positive [...]
5 February 2023 After a bruising 2022, global financial markets now have fully embraced the propect of a "soft landing" for the global economy. Even the IMF has revised up its 2023 GDP growth forecast following China's post-Covid opening, declining European natural gas prices, and signs that world-wide inflation may have peaked. In the United [...]
At the 16 March FOMC meeting, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasised the central bank's determination to lower inflation towards the 2% target. To this end, the FOMC raised the Federal Funds rate by 25bp, and Chairman Powell indicated similar rate hikes should be expected at future meetings. Further, he warned the FOMC was [...]
1 December 2021 As investors establish their 2022 market strategy, I summarise my answers to many key questions: Will the current rise in inflation be temporary or are rapidly rising prices here to stay? In the USA, for example, I expect price growth to peak in the first quarter of 2022, and "core" inflation to [...]