USA: Too Hot, Too Cold, or Just Right?

At the 16 March FOMC meeting, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasised the central bank's determination to lower inflation towards the 2% target. To this end, the FOMC raised the Federal Funds rate by 25bp, and Chairman Powell indicated similar rate hikes should be expected at future meetings. Further, he warned the FOMC was [...]

Strategy 2022: Avoiding Stagflation?

1 December 2021 As investors establish their 2022 market strategy, I summarise my answers to many key questions: Will the current rise in inflation be temporary or are rapidly rising prices here to stay? In the USA, for example, I expect price growth to peak in the first quarter of 2022, and "core" inflation to [...]

Mid-2021 Review: Inflation, Scarring & Tapering

6 June 2021 Typically, investors must juggle numerous factors while making their global asset allocation decisions. In this regard, the next 12-18 months may be more straightforward. By now, no one doubts massive monetary and fiscal stimulus will produce a sharp, V-shaped 6% global recovery in 2021, with China and the USA leading the way [...]

Bitcoin: What it Is, and What It’s Not!

20 May 2021 In the next few weeks, I will consider the future of money. In particular, I will evaluate the evolution of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC), as well as the potential role crypto-currencies may play in the future monetary system. Today, let's deal with the elephant in the room: Bitcoin! The world's largest [...]