UK: Consumer Weakness Will Persist For Years, Not a Few Quarters

1 August 2017 The recent release of second quarter GDP data had something for everyone.  For the post-Brexit sceptics, the meagre 0.3% gain (following a similarly paltry advance in Q1) confirmed the economic recovery was faltering. Recently, weak consumer spending has been a major headwind, resulting from modest income growth and higher prices following sterling’s [...]

Mexican Peso: You Haven’t Missed It!

3 May 2017 The Mexican peso has enjoyed a nice rebound in 2017 following its collapse in recent years.  With the Trump administration’s approach to its relationship with Mexico seemingly in a constant state of flux, investors are left to consider whether it is too late to buy the MXN or if this year’s bounce [...]

China: Currency Manipulator?

4 April 2017 When Chinese President Xi Jinping visits Florida, trade will be at the top of the agenda. The meeting occurs at a pivotal moment when President Trump’s “America first” agenda has put China in the unusual position of being the champion of liberal global trade.  Indeed, America’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership provides [...]

Trump & G20: Collision Course

23 March 2017 Two developments occurring over the weekend have the potential to put the United States on a collision course with its trading partners.  In order to win US approval, the communique released following the G20 meeting in Baden-Baden softened its previous commitment to countering “all forms of protectionism” – a pledge widely regarded [...]