Asia: Coping With Trump, China, and the Fed

2 November 2017 Despite the flare up of dangerous geopolitical risks, Asian assets have performed exceptionally well in 2017.  Indeed, after years of underperformance, the 28% gain in Asian equity markets is twice that of the S&P500.  Likewise, shrugging off initial concerns after last year’s US election, most of the region’s currencies have appreciated handsomely [...]

Investment Strategy: Next 6 Months are Key for Trump Presidency

3 September 2017 Welcome to the launch of what will be a regular strategy review.  Macro-themes have dominated market moves, especially following the Brexit referendum and the US and French elections.  With the Trump Presidency entering a potentially decisive six months, I believe this will remain true during the year ahead. I am a believer [...]

UK: Consumer Weakness Will Persist For Years, Not a Few Quarters

1 August 2017 The recent release of second quarter GDP data had something for everyone.  For the post-Brexit sceptics, the meagre 0.3% gain (following a similarly paltry advance in Q1) confirmed the economic recovery was faltering. Recently, weak consumer spending has been a major headwind, resulting from modest income growth and higher prices following sterling’s [...]