Can Europe Surprise? Only With Reforms

Is Europe in secular decline? If so, can it be halted? Since as recently as 1990, the region's share of global GDP has declined from 24% to 14%. Even compared to other advanced economies, Europe has lost ground. Indeed, since 2005 European GDP growth has trailed the USA by 0.7% annually (the gap is less [...]

Italy: Supply-Side Reforms Are the Only Remedy

19 November 2022 I have just enjoyed a fact-finding trip to the Emilia-Romagna region of Italy. Naturally, I indulged myself with the gastronomic delights of Bologna, Parma, and Modena; as well as marvelled at the mosaics in Ravenna. On the economic front, to be sure, Italy has had little to cheer about in recent years. [...]

Germany: Curing Europe’s Sick Man?

15 October 2023 Once admired as Europe's growth engine, Germany is now being identified as the region's "sick economy". Indeed, Germany's post-Covid recovery has lagged far behind the world's other advanced countries (Chart below). And, the nation's underperformance pre-dates the pandemic. What lies behind Germany's growth malaise, and can Europe's "Sick Man" be cured? To [...]

Spain: Convergence — Finishing the Job!

30 June 2023 I love Spain: the food, wine, sun, landscape, art, architecture, and the unmistakable roar of happy people cascading into the streeets from busy bodegas! Indeed, I just returned from trendy Valencia where the post-Covid atmosphere is bouyant. The 1992 Maastricht treaty -- outlining a path towards the introduction of the Euro in [...]