30 September 2018 Brazil will go to the polls next weekend in perhaps the most wide-open, consequential election in its history. I will leave it to more clever pundits to predict the outcome (especially after Brexit and the US election results!). Rather, following recent volatility in emerging markets, I will outline the challenges the next [...]
10 August 2018 In the wake of the turmoil in Turkey, markets are considering which Emerging Market currencies potentially could be vulnerable if a broader EM contagion develops. A couple of my favourite Charts may provide some clues. What has provoked the dramatic run on the Turkish lira? Chart 1 illustrates the Turkish currency was [...]
4 May 2108 In April 2016, Saudi Crown Prince (Deputy at the time) Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) announced his Saudi Arabia 2030 economic strategy. The ambitious plan has two major objectives. First of all, the collapse in oil prices after 2014 requires a major overhaul of Saudi fiscal policy to reduce the huge budget deficit. [...]
27 May 2018 Financial markets have celebrated the selection of Cyril Ramaphosa as leader of the ANC in December 2017, and his subsequent election as the Republic's president. The beleaguered Rand (ZAR), for example, has rallied over 20% in the past four months. Even the rating agencies have jumped on the band wagon. Both Fitch [...]