20 January 2020 A comprehensive trade agreement between the United States and China was never a realistic possibility: these take years of skillful negotiations to conclude. To be sure, the recently-signed plan has many shortcomings. Predictably, the deal fails to address many of the most contentious issues, e.g. state subsidies and cyber-security. Likewise, the dispute [...]
12 January 2020 The prospect that this week the USA and China will sign Phase 1 of a trade deal has buoyed financial markets. Of course, I will assess the impact of the agreement as details emerge. However, initial optimism is warranted if the plan represents the first step towards a comprehensive trade agreement (even [...]
6 August 2019 The US Federal Reserve's recent decision to reduce interest rates a stingy 25bp, and to deliver a less-dovish-than-expected statement raises more questions than it answered. Was the rate cut a one-time adjustment to provide insurance against the prospect of weaker growth ahead? Did Chairman Jerome Powell react to White House pressure? If [...]
23 May 2019 President Trump's decision to raise tariffs to 25% on $200 billion of Chinese imports, and his suggestion an additional $300 billion of purchases could soon be subjected to similar levies has brought the trade conflict to a new level. China is certain to retaliate. Understandably , the escalation of the trade war [...]