Asia: Coping With Trump, China, and the Fed

2 November 2017 Despite the flare up of dangerous geopolitical risks, Asian assets have performed exceptionally well in 2017.  Indeed, after years of underperformance, the 28% gain in Asian equity markets is twice that of the S&P500.  Likewise, shrugging off initial concerns after last year’s US election, most of the region’s currencies have appreciated handsomely [...]

Do Markets Believe Central Banks?

22 October 2017 Investors appear convinced that stimulative G-7 monetary policies lie behind the markets’ record-setting performance.  To be sure, that was the case between 2009 and 2015.  During the past three years, however, I believe the impact of monetary policy has been quite neutral, the key driver of markets more recently has shifted from [...]

US Equities: Small Caps Will Outperform

US Small Cap stocks have underperformed since February as doubts about the Trump agenda have grown.  However, smaller firms will benefit most from US tax reforms as there tax rates are higher than average.  Also, small caps are more domestically oriented, and   will benefit from the stronger US dollar I expect during the next six [...]

Investment Strategy: Next 6 Months are Key for Trump Presidency

3 September 2017 Welcome to the launch of what will be a regular strategy review.  Macro-themes have dominated market moves, especially following the Brexit referendum and the US and French elections.  With the Trump Presidency entering a potentially decisive six months, I believe this will remain true during the year ahead. I am a believer [...]