19 September 2018 As analysts return from summer holidays, they tend to extend their earnings forecasts into the next year. In this spirit, I am casting my strategic gaze into 2019 as well. In order to set the stage, a brief review of our 2018 strategic themes may be helpful. In our December essay "Aging [...]
10 August 2018 In the wake of the turmoil in Turkey, markets are considering which Emerging Market currencies potentially could be vulnerable if a broader EM contagion develops. A couple of my favourite Charts may provide some clues. What has provoked the dramatic run on the Turkish lira? Chart 1 illustrates the Turkish currency was [...]
22 July 2018 President Trump has taken aim at Europe. In reality, however, most of his ire has been directed at Germany. The President objects to America's $66bn bilateral trade deficit (the fourth largest amongst US trading partners), as well as Germany's failure to meet its NATO spending commitment. During his recent European trip, he [...]
9 July 2019 Has the impetus behind European reform, so evident following French President Macron's victory last year, now stalled? The recent Italian election result illustrates that the appeal of populist remedies to Europe's ills has not receded, and Euro-scepticism remains widespread. The challenge remains for Europe's mainstream national leaders, along with the EU institutions [...]