17 April 2019 In our 2019 Global Strategy blog entitled "Turning (Even More) Defensive" (published in September 2018), we outlined the broad macro themes we expected to drive financial markets. Given the sharp market swings that have occurred since last Autumn, I thought it would be worthwhile to review these themes in light of subsequent [...]
5 April 2019 In elections last year, voters in both Brazil and Mexico opted overwhelmingly for populist candidates. To be sure, Latin American populism takes many shapes. In Mexico, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's version (AMLO) promised significantly higher spending on social programs and infrastructure. Brazil's new President Jair Bolsonaro has pledged assertive efforts to clamp [...]
21 March 2019 At its March meeting, the US Federal Reserve signaled it would keep interest rates unchanged in 2019. In a similar fashion, the European Central Bank (ECB) at its recent gathering signaled interest rate hikes will be delayed until next year, and additional monetary support was forthcoming. But, that's not the end of [...]
6 March 2019 Following the BJP's dramatic 2014 electoral victory, Prime Minister Narendra Modi enjoyed a mandate to implement economic reform. From the beginning, however, the program faced criticism. On the one hand, Hindu nationalist believe the changes do not go far enough in promoting their interests, whereas non-Hindus charge the benefits have not been [...]